Pattern library

Known problem shapes

MBA Dog Bot is powered by a curated pattern library: recurring commercial, civic, mission-led and advisory problem shapes that help the engine fetch better methods, flag bad first fetches, and show its Scent Trail. The live engine is deterministic and inspectable — these are the shapes it recognises.

48 of 48 patterns

Commercial· 24

CommercialFunnel / customer conversion

Traffic without conversion

Top-of-funnel volume is growing but downstream conversion is flat or falling. The team mistakes a value/fit problem for an acquisition problem.

Bad first fetch:SWOT
Fetch:Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas
CommercialRetention / churn

Growth without retention

New customer growth looks healthy but cohort retention is leaking. Net revenue stalls and the team debates discounts instead of fit.

Bad first fetch:Discount-led win-back campaign
Fetch:Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas + Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis
CommercialUnit economics / margin

Margin erosion hidden by growth

Headline revenue is up but unit economics are quietly worsening. Growth is paid for by margin and no one is tracking it cohort by cohort.

Bad first fetch:Growth Options Matrix used too early
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas
CommercialActivation / onboarding

Activation cliff after strong signups

Most new users never reach first value. The product looks healthy on signups but a cliff sits inside the first session or week.

Bad first fetch:Discounting as a fix
Fetch:Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas
CommercialUnit economics / margin

Pricing change without value-proposition evidence

Pricing is set by cost-plus or competitor benchmark, with no test of perceived value. Conversion drops as pricing rises.

Bad first fetch:Price change before value-prop test
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas
CommercialSales / growth / revenue

Channel concentration risk

A large share of revenue or acquisition depends on a single channel. The business is one policy change away from a step-down.

Bad first fetch:More spend on the same channel
Fetch:Growth Options Matrix + Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis + Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis
CommercialUnit economics / margin

Premature scale before unit economics work

A team scales spend, hiring or geography before the unit economics work. Losses compound predictably.

Bad first fetch:Growth Options Matrix used too early
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas
CommercialPeople and capacity

Team burnout misread as performance

Output drops, errors rise, attrition ticks up. Leadership reads it as a performance issue and tightens management. Burnout compounds.

Bad first fetch:Performance management plan
Fetch:Operating Model Canvas
CommercialSales / growth / revenue

Product proliferation without focus

Product portfolio grows in response to every request. Cost to serve rises, positioning weakens, and no product is excellent.

Bad first fetch:Ansoff growth matrix
Fetch:Growth Options Matrix + Value Proposition Canvas + Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis
CommercialUnit economics / margin

Discount addiction eroding margin

Discounts become the default lever for conversion and retention. The full-price market shrinks and margin compounds downward.

Bad first fetch:Another promotion / deeper discount
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas + Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis
CommercialAcquisition channel quality

Channel quality problem

Acquisition volume is fine but channel quality has dropped. New traffic looks like the old funnel on paper but converts and retains worse.

Bad first fetch:Increase ad spend on the same channels
Fetch:Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas + Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis
CommercialStakeholder legitimacy / trust

Public trust problem misread as comms problem

Loss of customer trust is treated as a messaging problem. Comms gets re-briefed while the substantive failure that caused the distrust goes unaddressed.

Bad first fetch:Communications campaign before substance fix
Fetch:Stakeholder Legitimacy Map + Public Value Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
CommercialIncentives / compensation design

Sales attrition after a comp restructure

Sales attrition rises after a compensation, commission, quota or territory restructure. Leadership reaches for a performance management cycle before segmenting who is leaving and why.

Bad first fetch:Generic performance management cycle
Fetch:Incentives / Compensation Diagnostic + Attrition Segmentation Map + Manager Quality / Team Health Diagnostic + Sales Territory / Quota Fairness Review
CommercialFunnel / customer conversion

Pipeline stall from sales–marketing misalignment

Marketing is generating leads to target and sales is missing quota. Each side blames the other: leads are 'poor quality' or sales 'cannot close'. The real gap is usually in the definition of a qualified opportunity and the handoff between functions.

Bad first fetch:Buy more leads before fixing the handoff to sales
Fetch:Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas + Jobs-to-be-Done
CommercialOperating model / service delivery

Founder dependency bottleneck

Every decision routes through the founder. Hiring more senior people has not helped because authority did not move with the title. Growth stalls at the founder's personal bandwidth.

Bad first fetch:Org chart redraw before decision-rights map
Fetch:Operating Model Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map + Problem Definition Canvas
CommercialUnit economics / margin

Cost-to-serve mismatch (wrong customers profitable)

Revenue looks healthy but the wrong customers are profitable. The accounts that consume the most support, customisation and exception handling are not the ones paying for it. Average margin hides a polarised distribution.

Bad first fetch:Across-the-board price rise before segmenting cost-to-serve
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas + Jobs-to-be-Done
CommercialOperating model / service delivery

Tech debt misread as engineering underperformance

Engineering velocity has dropped and leaders read it as a performance problem. The real driver is accumulated architectural debt that makes every new feature touch three legacy systems. Hiring more engineers will not move the metric.

Bad first fetch:Hire more engineers before mapping the debt
Fetch:Operating Model Canvas + Problem Definition Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
CommercialOperating model / service delivery

Post-acquisition integration drift

The deal closed, the synergies were modelled, but two years on the orgs still operate as two systems with one logo. Decisions stall in unclear ownership and the promised savings never appear.

Bad first fetch:Synergy spreadsheet before operating-model design
Fetch:Operating Model Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map + Problem Definition Canvas
CommercialSales / growth / revenue

Key-account concentration risk

One client represents a disproportionate share of revenue. The org talks about diversification but quietly bends the roadmap, pricing and support around keeping that account happy. The risk is one renewal away.

Bad first fetch:Diversification push before retention audit on the anchor account
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Porter's Five Forces + Value Proposition Canvas
CommercialUnit economics / margin

Freemium conversion cliff

The free tier is wildly popular and the paid tier is not. The team's instinct is to add more features to free, which deepens the cliff. The real question is whether the free experience reaches the point a buyer would pay for.

Bad first fetch:Add more free features before testing willingness to pay
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas + Jobs-to-be-Done
CommercialSales / growth / revenue

Roadmap driven by the loudest customer

The product roadmap is a queue of bespoke requests from the most vocal accounts. Each feature ships, no segment is fully served, and the team is too busy delivering to validate whether the requests represent a real market.

Bad first fetch:Another bespoke build before segmenting the request
Fetch:Jobs-to-be-Done + Value Proposition Canvas + Problem Definition Canvas
CommercialFunnel / customer conversion

Sales cycle lengthening (deal slippage)

Deals that used to close in weeks now take quarters. Sales blames the macro climate; the real change is often that buying committees have grown and the value story has not adapted. Adding sales training rarely moves the metric.

Bad first fetch:Sales training before buyer-process diagnosis
Fetch:Funnel / Customer Journey Diagnosis + Jobs-to-be-Done + Value Proposition Canvas
CommercialUnit economics / margin

Cash burn misread as growth investment

The burn is justified as 'investment in growth' but the unit economics do not support the story. Each new customer makes the picture worse, not better, and the next raise assumes a model the data does not yet show.

Bad first fetch:Raise more before testing unit economics
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Value Proposition Canvas + Problem Definition Canvas
CommercialUnit economics / margin

Platform / marketplace fee dependency

A third-party platform owns the customer relationship and takes a rising share of the margin. Each fee change quietly compresses the P&L. Negotiation buys time; a parallel channel is the only structural answer.

Bad first fetch:Negotiate with the platform before building a parallel channel
Fetch:Unit Economics / Margin Diagnosis + Porter's Five Forces + Value Proposition Canvas

Public sector· 10

Public sectorDemand / prevention pressure

Demand without capacity

Service demand is outstripping capacity, backlogs grow, and the political response is to cut costs before understanding the demand driver.

Bad first fetch:Generic cost-cutting matrix
Fetch:Demand / Prevention Map + Operating Model Canvas
Public sectorOperating model / service delivery

Complaints, backlog, unclear ownership

Complaints and backlog grow because responsibility crosses team or organisational boundaries with no clear owner of the end-to-end service.

Bad first fetch:SWOT
Fetch:Operating Model Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
Public sectorGovernance / decision ownership

Partnership without ownership

Multiple partners, shared ambition, no single accountable owner. Decisions drift and delivery stalls between organisations.

Bad first fetch:Delivery plan before accountability map
Fetch:Governance / Delivery Ownership Map + Stakeholder Legitimacy Map
Public sectorPublic value / legitimacy

Cost pressure without public value test

Budget pressure drives cuts before any test of which spend produces public value. Easy savings hit prevention and equity hardest.

Bad first fetch:Generic cost-cutting matrix
Fetch:Public Value Canvas + Demand / Prevention Map + Equity and Distributional Impact Check
Public sectorPublic value / legitimacy

Statutory duty squeezing discretionary services

Statutory demand is rising while discretionary services that prevent it are being cut. The squeeze accelerates downstream demand.

Bad first fetch:Generic cost-cutting matrix
Fetch:Public Value Canvas + Statutory / Mandate Check + Equity and Distributional Impact Check
Public sectorEquity / distributional impact

Change without equity / distributional check

A decision is made on aggregate cost or efficiency without examining who is affected. Vulnerable cohorts carry the loss.

Bad first fetch:Implementation plan before distributional impact check
Fetch:Equity and Distributional Impact Check + Public Value Canvas + Stakeholder Legitimacy Map
Public sectorDemand / prevention pressure

Failure-demand spiral

Demand is largely created by upstream failure (missed calls, broken handoffs, repeat contacts). Adding capacity feeds the spiral.

Bad first fetch:Capacity expansion before demand analysis
Fetch:Demand / Prevention Map + Operating Model Canvas
Public sectorPublic value / legitimacy

Decision without consultation legitimacy

A decision is technically sound but has not earned legitimacy through visible engagement. Backlash is read as comms failure, not process failure.

Bad first fetch:Communications plan before legitimacy check
Fetch:Stakeholder Legitimacy Map + Public Value Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
Public sectorAdvisory / problem definition

Political pressure outrunning the evidence

A high-profile event drives a fast policy response. Evidence base is thin and the response risks unintended downstream effects.

Bad first fetch:Visible response before problem definition
Fetch:Problem Definition Canvas + Public Value Canvas + Stakeholder Legitimacy Map
Public sectorGovernance / delivery accountability

Place promise without delivery route

A place-based vision (regeneration, levelling-up, masterplan) is published with no delivery vehicle, accountable owner or funding route. Partners drift.

Bad first fetch:Vision document before delivery model
Fetch:Governance / Delivery Ownership Map + Operating Model Canvas + Stakeholder Legitimacy Map

Mission-led / charity· 8

Mission-led / charityMission / beneficiary impact

Impact story without evidence

Strong narrative and brand, weak outcomes evidence. Funders and trustees increasingly want proof that the story is true.

Bad first fetch:Marketing or storytelling before evidence
Fetch:Public Value Canvas + Equity and Distributional Impact Check
Mission-led / charityMission / beneficiary impact

Mission drift via commercial growth

Growth pressure or large funder requirements pull a mission-led organisation toward work that pays the bills but dilutes purpose.

Bad first fetch:Ansoff growth matrix
Fetch:Public Value Canvas + Value Proposition Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
Mission-led / charityMission / beneficiary fit

Funder requirements misaligned with beneficiary need

What the funder wants to measure or fund is not what the beneficiary needs. The organisation contorts delivery to fit the funder.

Bad first fetch:Rewrite funder report before testing fit
Fetch:Public Value Canvas + Equity and Distributional Impact Check + Problem Definition Canvas
Mission-led / charityPublic value / outcomes evidence

Popular programme without outcomes proof

A programme is well-attended and well-loved but cannot demonstrate outcome change. Pressure builds to scale it before outcomes are proven.

Bad first fetch:Scale the programme before testing outcomes
Fetch:Public Value Canvas + Equity and Distributional Impact Check
Mission-led / charityMission / beneficiary impact

Theory of change vacuum

Activities and outputs are tracked diligently but no one can articulate the causal chain from those activities to the outcomes that matter. Reporting becomes a list of things done, not change made.

Bad first fetch:Logic model template before causal logic
Fetch:Public Value Canvas + Problem Definition Canvas + Equity and Distributional Impact Check
Mission-led / charityMission / beneficiary impact

Restricted funding trap

Funders pay for projects but not for the core capability that makes projects work. The org accumulates restricted income, runs core on fumes, and cannot say no to the next grant even when it pulls them off-mission.

Bad first fetch:Chase the next grant before fixing the funding mix
Fetch:Public Value Canvas + Problem Definition Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
Mission-led / charityPeople and capacity

Values-led org losing the people who built it

The people who built the organisation are leaving, but engagement surveys say things are fine. Exit conversations point at exhaustion, moral injury, or a quiet sense that the work no longer matches what was promised.

Bad first fetch:Engagement survey before listening to leavers
Fetch:Attrition Segmentation Map + Manager Quality / Team Health Diagnostic + Operating Model Canvas
Mission-led / charityMission / beneficiary impact

Scaling beyond core competency

Growth pulls the org into services, regions or cohorts where its hard-won expertise does not apply. The mission language stretches to cover it, but delivery quality and outcomes start to drift.

Bad first fetch:Growth plan before competency honesty
Fetch:Problem Definition Canvas + Public Value Canvas + Growth Options Matrix

Advisory / consultancy· 6

Advisory / consultancyCapability / data / governance mismatch

AI ambition without readiness

Leadership wants an AI strategy but the underlying data, process and governance are not ready. The real problem is upstream.

Bad first fetch:Technology roadmap
Fetch:Problem Definition Canvas + Operating Model Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
Advisory / consultancyOperating model / service delivery

Transformation without operating model

A transformation is announced but the future operating model — roles, decisions, data flows — has not been designed. Change stalls.

Bad first fetch:Programme roadmap before operating model
Fetch:Operating Model Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
Advisory / consultancyAdvisory / problem definition

Asset rationalisation without success definition

An asset, portfolio or estate review is commissioned without a clear definition of what 'better' looks like. Recommendations land politically rather than strategically.

Bad first fetch:Property options long-list
Fetch:Problem Definition Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map + Stakeholder Legitimacy Map
Advisory / consultancyAdvisory / problem definition

Discovery without a decision-maker

A discovery or scoping engagement starts without an identified sponsor who can act on the findings. Recommendations land in a void.

Bad first fetch:Discovery workstream before sponsor agreement
Fetch:Problem Definition Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map + Stakeholder Legitimacy Map
Advisory / consultancyAdvisory / problem definition

Discovery scope too broad

A discovery or review is scoped end-to-end across everything. It produces a description, not a decision. The client ends up no closer to action.

Bad first fetch:Broad current-state assessment across everything
Fetch:Problem Definition Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map
Advisory / consultancyAdvisory / problem definition

Recommendations ignored — deliverable theatre

The work was good and the deck was polished, but nothing happened. The client thanked the team, filed the report, and made no decisions. The pattern repeats across engagements because the missing piece is decision rights, not analysis.

Bad first fetch:Better-formatted deck before fixing decision rights
Fetch:Problem Definition Canvas + Governance / Delivery Ownership Map + Stakeholder Legitimacy Map